From the Daily News:
As of yesterday evening, the board had canvassed the 10 counties in the 20th and discovered that 10,055 absentee ballots had been issued by seven counties and 5,906 had been returned.
That number could go up, as three counties haven’t provided their numbers. Absentee ballots must be received by April 7, but the ballots sent in by overseas/federal/military voters (recall that there was a fight over those) can arrive by April 13 and still be counted.
Of the 10,055 absentees, the Repubicans have a roughly 600-ballot edge, according to the board. But of the 5,906 received to date, 798 more came from Republicans.
These numbers might be good news for Scott Murphy. Accord to the NYS BoE (PDF, p. 9), enrollment in the 20th is 42R-26D-24I. If those percentages had held among the 5,906 absentee ballots returned so far, there would have been 2,468 GOP ballots vs. 1,547 Dem ballots – a margin of 921. But we know that the GOP only has a 798-ballot edge.
Still, as the quoted material makes plain, there’s a lot of time for more absentees to come in, and thus plenty of room for these numbers to wiggle. Hang on to your hats.
(Hat-tip: Shinigami)
Looks to me like Tedisco will likely squeek out a 100 vote or so victory.
Still a good chance for a GOP pick up!
It would be nice to know which 3 are the non-responsive counties. And get the break down of those 5,906 by county as well. Then more meaningful projections will be possible.
“Don’t let the Democrats steal this election. Less than 80 ballots separate Republican Jim Tedisco and his Democrat opponent,” read a National Republican Congressional Committee fundraising email sent not long after the last precinct reported Tuesday. “We need your support to ensure we can overcome the Democrats’ legal maneuvers. Democrats have almost succeeded in stealing the election in Minnesota and seating Al Franken. We cannot allow them to manipulate electoral results to seat another tax-troubled liberal.”
http://www.politico.com/news/s…
I continue to believe the result here means relatively little but the desperate GOP spin is always amusing. Same old shit!
As I’ve said all along, this election was totally unnecessary. You can thank soon to be ex-Governor Paterson for the loss of a House seat if Tedisco ends up winning.
Anybody want to speculate what that might mean or is this just bluster?
what portion of the absentees are military versus non-military? Seems to me that’s the critical distinction.
The registration margin is fairly meaningless, without knowing who turned out on election day. If Democrats were more likely to show up on election day than Republicans were the absentee ballots could be a more GOP heavy sample than the actual voters.
http://voices.washingtonpost.c…
http://voices.washingtonpost.c…
Albany Project links to them, but it definitely seems to me based on their coverage that they’re tighter with the Tedisco camp than Murphy’s.
Apparently Tedisco’s people are now saying that they got corrected numbers from Columbia Co. and that they’ve cut Murphy’s lead down to 25 votes.
http://www.politickerny.com/28…